Walking The Lines – Week 14
Well, where did that come from?
After a tailspin that lasted a solid month and saw my record for the season dip the closest it’s been to .500 since September, I pulled my best week of the entire season out of thin air last week with a 10-6 record. Heck, even that was a little bit unlucky, because I grabbed a late line on the Bears-Lions Thanksgiving clash, when the one from a few hours earlier would’ve been a winner for me. That 10-6 could’ve been 11-5 if I wasn’t such a lazy bum! I even went 4-1 on the five college games I selected!
I don’t post the records every week since this is an NFL picks column and I pick varying numbers of college games weekly, but in case you’re wondering as we head into Conference Championship week, my record on college picks is 16-12.
Maybe it was an easier slate of games, maybe it was some friendlier lines, or maybe I just got lucky? I don’t know what it was, but all of you should take note of this historic event that occurred here last week. You just saw me correctly predict 10 (ten) NFL games against the spread in the same week.
I think the regression is coming, but how steep will it be? It’s time to get started on week 14 to see if I can keep this momentum going.
All lines are consensus lines from The Action Network as of Wednesday night. Picks are in CAPS.
Last week: 10-6
Season: 98-92-2
DALLAS (-3) @ Chicago
Welcome to Jason Garrett’s last stand. It’s really, really difficult to overstate how much Garrett needs this game to keep his job. The entire world is bearing down on him. He made some of the worst decisions an NFL head coach can make this season, and it has resulted in what is veering close to a wasted season with some elite talent. Jerry Jones is visibly unhappy with him for the first time in his entire tenure.
When all of these things are happening—and I seriously cannot stress this point enough—losing to Mitch Trubisky in primetime would be a really, really bad look.
It might just be bad enough to earn him a pink slip, which is a much more ominous gift to leave Chicago with than say, a deep dish pizza or a postcard.
The Cowboys need this in the worst way, and this is still a Bears team that needed late heroics to outlast David Blough in his NFL debut a week ago. I think the Cowboys have just enough desperation to find a way to win and cover in this one.
Washington @ GREEN BAY (-13)
For those of you who have been reading these picks all season, you know how much I hate these big numbers. Just on principle, I think it’s a better idea to take the points when the number is in double digits. The NFL is a league of thin margins, and one way or another even mismatches usually wind up within a possession or two. In fact, there have been 30 NFL games this season with a spread of at least ten points, and the underdogs are 18-12 against the number.
You know how Ron Burgundy says “60% of the time it works every time” in Anchorman? Picking double-digit underdogs in the NFL has literally worked 60% of the time this year. It is generally the safer play, regardless of matchup or situation.
I just can’t do it here. The Packers used their get-right game last week in New York, and now return to a building where they are 5-1 this season, and 4-2 against the number. They have a one-game lead and the tiebreaker over Minnesota in the division standings and can start turning their attention to a potential first-round bye if they can finish the season strong. In fact, if they win and the 49ers beat the Saints in New Orleans, the Packers will hold a bye with three games to go.
Oh and while there’s a little national exposure for Washington after a win and with a big game for NFC playoff seeding this Sunday, now is a good time to say #FreeTrentWilliams.
DETROIT (+13) @ Minnesota
And here’s a spot where I am going to do what I normally do and take two touchdowns when I get them. It’s just a perfect storm of factors for me to see the Lions keeping this one at least within two scores.
First of all, the Vikings are coming off of a very physical game on a short week with a quick turnaround. They got beat up on Monday in Seattle, and now have one less day to get ready for this one, while the Lions are off their mini-bye. Part of that game was the injury to Dalvin Cook, and he is still questionable to play Sunday as I write this. The same can be said for wide receiver Adam Thielen and tackle Riley Reiff, neither of whom practiced on Wednesday.
I tend to think that if these guys are game-time decisions on Sunday, the Vikings might be more inclined to rest them given the caliber of the opponent and the very important games they have coming up.
And the clincher for me is that the Vikings have made a little bit of a habit out of keeping these games tighter than they should be. Earlier this season they were 16.5-point favorites over Washington and only won by 10, they needed a very fortunate piece of officiating to finish off Denver in a game they were favored by 9.5 in, and of course the coup de grâce came last season when the Bills won in Minnesota as 17-point underdogs.
It’s like they don’t want to fly too close to the sun, so they just keep their fanbase grounded whenever they can by not blowing out the league’s worst teams. A true veteran move, considering how many times they’ve let down their fans with high expectations over the years.
Vikings win, but I’ll take 13 points against a team seemingly allergic to winning these types of games in blowouts who also might be missing some key contributors on both sides of the ball.
Carolina @ ATLANTA (-3)
Alright, just hear me out. I have an idea. I think it just might work.
What if we don’t bother with this? Like we just don’t play the game?
The Falcons and Panthers could join hands at a local soup kitchen and volunteer on Sunday afternoon. They could rent out an Atlanta movie theater and put college football tape on the big screen, giving both an opportunity to get a head start on the draft process.
I mean, who says we really *have* to play this game? There have been 73 games in NFL history that ended in 0-0 ties. If the league can survive more than six dozen games where neither team scored, it can certainly survive one irrelevant NFC South game just not getting played because there’s no point in it.
San Francisco @ NEW ORLEANS (-2.5)
Obviously whenever the 49ers play in this building, my mind can really only jump to that Super Bowl.
The main thing I’ve always wondered about this is if it was a premeditated plan or not. Personally, I choose to believe New Orleans and the Superdome’s staff just forgot to pay the electric bill for their most important day in years, which is objectively hilarious and makes New Orleans look like an awful host city that can’t put anything together.
But from a chaos factor, I believe there’s also some intrigue to it being an inside job. Who did it? And for what motivation? Somebody who didn’t want another Super Bowl in New Orleans? An Atlanta native buried deep in the Saints’ front office who knew just the way to embarrass the franchise? Was it a mole Arthur Blank placed onto the Super Bowl organizing committee? Maybe it was Sean Payton, who wanted to make sure if his team couldn’t play in the New Orleans Super Bowl, nobody would.
It’s a fascinating case, one that should probably get its own episode of X-Files.
As for the game, I just think this is too tough of a spot for the Niners. It’s their second consecutive brutal road game, while the Saints are coming off a mini-bye and what was a mostly smooth ride in Atlanta. It’s one of those lines where the key number plays a big role. At 3 or 3.5, I could talk myself into taking the points on the possibility of another late field goal deciding this game the same way it did last week for the Niners. At 2.5, I have to go with the better football team playing at home.
Hopefully the lights stay on for all 60 minutes during this huge 49ers game in New Orleans.
INDIANAPOLIS (+3) @ Tampa Bay
Here we have another game that is impossible to talk about without thinking of the past. On October 6th, 2003, the Colts beat the Buccaneers with one of the greatest comebacks by sheer volume ever.
You think 28-3 with 17 minutes is impressive? Try 35-14 with 3:40 to play. It seems impossible to make up three touchdowns in under four minutes, but the Colts did it in Tampa. They scored a quick touchdown, grabbed an onside kick that looked much more like a Madden glitch than anything that could happen in real life, scored another touchdown in just 1:08, hit another onside kick, got stop, scored again, and won it in overtime. If you have six minutes, you can watch it back here.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Dx3Do6i1fU
It would be fair to assume that was the night Jon Gruden developed the nickname “The Sheriff” for Manning and carried that into every Monday Night Football broadcast he did for a solid decade.
“The Sheriff did it again with a big time throw there,” Gruden said roughly 100 times on television, harking back to that one night where Peyton beat his team in a Monday Night thriller on each and every occasion.
It was better than what we currently have with Booger and Tessitore, at least.
This feels like another chance for me to combine two theories I tend to side with when it comes to betting with a desperate team playing in an up/down spot.
As much as the Colts have been struggling of late with a 1-4 stretch, they’ve only been outscored 106-103. They had three losses within four points in the last month, but they’ve hardly been playing bad football. Even the 31-17 loss to Tennessee last Sunday was a 17-17 game for most of the fourth quarter.
On the flip side, they don’t ask how, they ask how many. And those losses have really put a dent in their playoff hopes. Any path back to January will almost certainly involve winning this game with six losses already on the board and a trip to the Superdome lurking.
Meanwhile, the Buccaneers have played two sparkling defensive football games the last two weeks against lowly Atlanta and Jacksonville. They’ll regress back to the mean here against what is at least an average offense. Colts keep their season alive and set up a big week 15 game in New Orleans that will have an impact on the playoff picture in both conferences.
CINCINNATI (+8) @ Cleveland
Is it possible for both teams to just not cover? I mean I’m pretty sure both fanbases will be spending most of Sunday’s game discussing and debating Ohio State’s playoff semifinal matchup. In fact, I think a very smart business idea for Southwest or Delta this weekend would be to open up some kind of booth or ticket window either inside or outside the stadium.
As if this moment, we know Ohio State will be in the College Football Playoff barring something astronomically unlikely. Even if it lost as more than two-touchdown favorites against Wisconsin, I still can’t conceive of a scenario where the final four doesn’t include the Buckeyes. The only question left is if they will play in the Atlanta semifinal or the Arizona semifinal.
We should know that answer around 12:15 on Sunday, which means football fans all across Ohio will be trying to book flights to one of those destinations before they sell out. Where will the largest gathering of Ohio football fans be on Sunday afternoon? This football game right here.
Do it, major airlines. You’ll make a fortune from Ohio State fans scrambling to get their seats secure, and they’ll probably be more excited to do that than watch what will be on the field in this game.
The only thing I’m using to make this pick is the Browns’ injury report. Viewer discretion is advised.
Twitter: #Browns lengthy injury report. https://t.co/2TZPBeo9rs (@twithersAP)
Maybe the Browns survive all the injuries and still win, maybe they don’t. I honestly don’t care. But if they win, it won’t be by more than a touchdown.
MIAMI (+5.5) @ NY Jets
Speaking of college football, you know it’s a good week when 60% of the games involved two ranked teams. Granted, there are only ten total games because it’s Conference Championship week, but the point still stands. This one is good. Here’s a six-pack of title game plays for you.
Pac-12: No. 13 OREGON (+6.5) @ No. 8 Utah (in Santa Clara)
Big-12: No. 7 BAYLOR (+9) vs. @ No. 6 Oklahoma (in Dallas)
AAC: No. 20 CINCINNATI (+9.5) @ No. 17 Memphis
SEC: No. 4 Georgia vs. No. 2 LSU (-7) (in Atlanta)
ACC: No. 23 VIRGINIA (+28.5) vs. No. 3 Clemson (in Charlotte)
Big-10: No. 8 Wisconsin vs. No. 1 OHIO STATE (-16.5) (in Indianapolis)
Alright, let’s run through this quick. Utah beats Oregon, but I’ll take almost a full touchdown with Justin Herbert in what should be a low-scoring game. Baylor outplayed Oklahoma in their first matchup, will outplay them again. Memphis beat Cincinnati by double digits last week in a scheduling quirk, that’s tough to do two weeks in a row.
Georgia with an injured Lawrence Cager and a (first half) suspended George Pickens won’t be able to keep up with LSU’s offense. No chance Virginia beats Clemson, but I’m fine putting more than four touchdowns in my pocket with a pretty live offense. And Ohio State is the best team in America, they won’t have an issue handling Wisconsin again.
Got all that?
Denver @ HOUSTON (-9.5)
You know how sometimes you’re just plodding along through a morning, then one sip of coffee feels like rocket fuel and you’re out solving all the world’s problems? Or when you’re watching basketball and a player is struggling, then they hit one shot to get them going and they drop 50 points? That’s Houston right now.
The Texans were doing enough to get by and stay in the playoff race with some close wins. Then they won back-to-back huge primetime games over the Colts and Patriots, and now they look ready to take on the world. It’s a perfect metaphor, as the team from the Space City now appears to be on rocket fuel.
Is it a letdown spot against Drew Lock and the Broncos? Yeah, maybe. It seems like a spot where a team hyped up off a pair of emotional wins has to grind one out after overlooking an inferior team.
But I won’t be the one to pick it the way the Texans are trending right now.
BALTIMORE (-5.5) @ Buffalo
I absolutely love this game, but it’s not for the reasons you might think.
It’s a perfect illustration of how much things can change in the NFL. I invite you back to a time not so long ago, the opening week of the 2018 season, where the Ravens beat the Bills 47-3.
Nathan Peterman (remember him?) started for Buffalo. He was benched in favor of Allen, who was promptly declared a bust by the national media after his first abbreviated game. Joe Flacco was lights out for Baltimore, firing three touchdown passes and prompting “Why did they even draft that Jackson kid?” takes. Everything people said about the Dolphins early this year, people said it about the Bills last year.
Here we are 15 months later. Jackson will be the league MVP barring a late collapse, Allen is a rising star himself in year two, Flacco is a failed project in Denver, and the Bills are not rebuilding. They can sew up a playoff spot this Sunday with a win and some help elsewhere in the league.
I’m not picking against Jackson right now, but there’s a point here beyond the pick.
Things change faster in the NFL than any other major American sport. Your team is never as far away from a total reversal of fortunes—good or bad—as you think.
LA Chargers @ JACKSONVILLE (+3)
This is a football game.
TENNESSEE (-3) @ Oakland
Last week was pretty much a no-win spot for Oakland. Normally I wouldn’t hype myself up this much, but because I was 10-6 last week, I’ll go ahead and say it. I called that as a blowout spot for the Raiders last week. The one way to beat Kansas City is to *ultra Schottenheimer vice* establish the run, but you can’t do that when you fall into a quick hole on the scoreboard. Their depleted defense saw them fall behind 21-0 before halftime, and the only tool they really had to work with was taken away long before they ever had a chance to get it going.
I just think this team is out of gas. They put it all in the removal van to head to Vegas, and there’s nothing left in the Oakland car to drive to the finish line in 2019. The injuries have hurt, regression has been a factor, and the roster not having a ton of depth is starting to show up.
The Titans are a machine right now. They head to Oakland, Derrick Henry beats Josh Jacobs in the Bama Running Back Bowl™, and they set up the first of two enormous showdowns that will likely decide the AFC South with the Texans for next week.
KANSAS CITY (+3) @ New England
Nobody’s saying the Patriots are dead. That’s a stupid, lazy narrative we’re all sick of. I also refuse to believe anybody can possibly be stupid enough to think the Patriots are dead after how many times they’ve come back from situations like this.
Ironically, the first time I remember hearing “the dynasty is over!” takes was back in 2014, when Tom Brady was really bad in a big primetime game and the Chiefs shellacked the Patriots 41-14. It was their ugly bad loss in the space of a month, and people were questioning if the end was near in Foxboro. That Kansas City loss prompted Bill Belichick’s legendary “we’re on to Cincinnati” press conference. Over and over, he kept stressing that the Patriots were moving on to focus on the Bengals.
The Patriots beat the Bengals 43-17, ripped off another six consecutive wins after that, won the Super Bowl, won another Super Bowl two years later, and won yet another Super Bowl later.
The dynasty wasn’t dead. The football gods were just taking a brief recess from actively ruining the lives of the other 31 teams and fanbases so Belichick could drop an iconic quote in football history.
Now five years later it’s almost an identical situation. The Patriots have already had one bad loss this month, are facing the Chiefs this week, then go to Cincinnati next Sunday.
Up until three garbage time scores while trailing by 18, 19, and 13 respectively in Houston last Sunday, New England was on a stretch where they scored two offensive touchdowns in 198 minutes of football dating back to the Baltimore games. Tom Brady touched the football 31 times, and got his team in the end zone twice.
Mitchell Trubisky has been statistically better than Tom Brady over the last eight games, and I’m not making that up. Trubisky has fewer interceptions, a better completion percentage, a higher QBR, a higher Y/A, and only trails Brady 11-10 in touchdowns in half a season’s worth of football.
So yes, I do think the Chiefs go to New England and win outright on Sunday. Mahomes passes the ball over a defense leaking oil, and an offense in the midst of a mighty funk won’t be able to score enough points to keep up with it.
My advice to you is to not declare the dynasty dead when this happens. You’re just wind up disappointed and wondering where it all went wrong. Don’t make that call until you know it’s true. Because after the Chiefs game, with the entire world trying to kill them off, you know what Belichick is going to say in the press room.
They’ll be on to Cincinnati.
PITTSBURGH (-2.5) @ Arizona
A few weeks ago I admitted how wrong I was about the Eagles, and I think it’s time to issue a public apology to the other team in Pennsylvania.
Have you ever heard of Primantis? It’s a Pittsburgh sandwich shop famous for putting fries and coleslaw in the sandwiches along with whatever else, and the legend goes that it stems from the steelworkers who didn’t have time to eat a full meal at lunch, so they’d just eat it all in one sandwich.
It doesn’t seem like it would work. Pretty much just everything slopped together between two pieces of bread. It’s all ugly, and it feels like it has the potential to fall apart at any moment. But it does work, and the place has been in business since 1933.
That’s literally the 2019 Steelers. Ugly. Slopped together in a way you wouldn’t expect to work. Capable of falling apart at any moment. Roethlisberger’s hurt. Bell and Brown are gone. Conner and Smith-Schuster are hurt. The two best quarterbacks, two best running backs, and two best wide receivers off the 2018 Steelers are all not playing with the 2019 team for one reason or another.
And guess what? It’s working. They’re 7-5 and holding down a playoff spot with a month remaining despite being held together by duct tape and paper clips right now. I expect them to keep it going in Arizona against a Cardinals team starting to resemble what we thought they would this year.
SEATTLE (PK) @ LA Rams
This spread is weird as hell, and it scares me. I use Action Network to make these picks, but ESPN’s Pickcenter actually has the Rams favored in this game. Island, FanDuel, and Nitrogen are also sportsbooks with the Rams laying a point. I did not find any sportsbooks in any off-site research that had Seattle favored by more than a point.
To make it even weirder, It opened at Seattle -3. The public has pushed this down a full field goal or even further in some cases in favor of the Rams.
I don’t like this, and I would never even think about putting a real-life ticket on this game in Vegas given the circumstances, but I’ll stick with my gut and take Seattle.
NY Giants @ PHILADELPHIA (-9.5)
Doug Pederson is 5-1 against the Giants, and Eli Manning is back in for the Giants as they now occupy the coveted No. 2 spot in the draft order and the inside track to the potential franchise defensive end waiting in Columbus. Plus I’m getting this line on the right side of a key number for what I want to pick.
The Eagles are 2-5 in their last seven, and the Giants are 0-7 in their last seven.
Try not to get too excited about this one.