NFL Divisional Round Roundtable
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With the Divisional Round upon us, the time has come to head to our RAF roundtable to see what our writers can envision for a weekend of red-hot football action.
Eight teams remain in the fight for the Lombardi Trophy. Which of those eight will fall this weekend, and which will advance to Championship Sunday? David Howell, Joe Hulbert, Tristan Fitzpatrick, and Alan Cole took questions from Sam Brown, covering all four of the matchups this weekend. As well as predicting who will win each of the games, they were asked about what might make the games go a certain way – key players, key matchups, and – in this year of quarterback injuries – the unheralded signal-callers looking to carry some of this year’s playoff teams deep into championship contention.
Here’s what they responded with. Get ready to watch this weekend’s big-time Divisional Round games with new eyes, folks…
The Philadelphia Eagles are the first ever #1 seed to be rated by Las Vegas as an underdog heading into the Divisional Round. Can the team rally around the weakness of Nick Foles to deliver a win?
David Howell: They can, but that doesn’t mean they will. It’s a game that could genuinely go either way, and the oddsmakers have set the spread at less than three for a reason. The Eagles went 13-3 for a reason, too, and that reason wasn’t just Wentz.
A lot might depend on the weather at Lincoln Financial Field on that Saturday afternoon. Inclement weather could really help the Eagles fly, as not only are they less likely to be driven by their aerial attack, but they’re far more used to it than a dome team like the Falcons – who haven’t played a game in genuinely wintry conditions since a December 2014 trip to Lambeau.
Joe Hulbert: I don’t think the Eagles can rally around Nick Foles, purely because I believe they need to establish the run game to do this, and Atlanta have a stout run defense led by Grady Jarrett and Dontari Poe. I think this game will be a slug fest, but I’d put the chances of Foles winning at near to zero.
Tristan Fitzpatrick: Yes, Carson Wentz was very very good this year. But there’s all-stars all over the team: O-Line has been amazing, D-Line is phenomenally effective. Falcons are beatable, if the Eagles can play relatively mistake-free. No chance Devonta Freeman has a repeat game against the best run defense in the NFL.
Alan Cole: I think they absolutely can. They have a good matchup with the Falcons on Saturday. Atlanta’s offensive line played probably their worst game of the season in 2016 in Philadelphia. The Eagles blew them off the ball all game, and kicked them up and down the field en route to a comfortable 24-15 win. Fletcher Cox and company will need to have monster games, but if the Eagles can dominate the line of scrimmage again, they have a good chance again.
Sam Brown: Nick Foles is picking the wrong week to face this Atlanta Falcons defense. Hot off knocking out the Los Angeles Rams, they’ll be on their toes to come after Foles early and hard. Keep him under pressure by any means necessary, force him to keep his cool to beat you with his arm.
The Titans surprised many by getting into the playoffs, let alone getting through the first round. Is there any way they can keep the road going through Foxboro?
DH: Well, with Jimmy G having been traded away, injuring Tom Brady might work? In all seriousness, this game amounts to a second-round bye for the Patriots, just like the one they got last year against the Texans.
JH: The Titans surprised many, including myself, and I actually think they match up quite well to the Patriots. The Titans have a variety of man coverage DBs, and this is the key to beating Tom Brady. I also think Derrick Henry is the type of back who can terrorise the Patriots defensive front, which is injury-hit, and not the same with the decline of Alan Branch.
TF: No. It’s great for Titans fans to get excited about. Making the Divisional Round is an achievement. But they scraped in through the weakest division, beat a dreadful KC, and now play Tom Brady in NE? No chance. This is a stepping stone for Mariota and co. Experience to gain from.
AC: If they can force two or three turnovers, they will at least have a fighting chance. Mariota has the ability to make plays on his own and spread out a Patriots defense that has looked mortal at times this season. If they can keep the ball out of Tom Brady’s hands and steal some extra possessions, they could pull off one of the greatest upsets in NFL history.
SB: There’s no way, in my book. I’ve seen these negative stories about the Patriots come out before – and they always end with Tom Brady hugging Mark Wahlberg in a cloud of confetti. The Titans will fall behind early, and stay there. (By the way, Wahlberg to play Brady in the film about his life?)
The Jaguars and the Steelers game will see a premium NFL defense match-up against a premium NFL offense. Who do you give the edge to, and why?
DH: They say defense wins championships, and I do think that the Jaguars can put a lid on the “Killer Bs” (Bell, Brown, Big Ben) when the Steelers have the ball. Unfortunately, the Steelers also have a competent stop unit, which will look positively elite against the “challenge” provided by Blake Bortles, multiple no-name young receivers, and the constantly banged-up Leonard Fournette. We’ll get the Steelers-Patriots rematch we’ve all been waiting for, but it won’t be the Jags D to blame for not preventing it.
JH: The Steelers offense is much better now than it was the last time these teams met, so I give the clear edge to the Pittsburgh Steelers. Their defence has really struggled to play a lot of the press coverage schemes that Keith Butler wants them to, but the Jaguars do not have the personnel to exploit this.
TF: Defense wins championships. I wish it wasn’t the case, but ask any Broncos fan. Super Bowl 48 and 50 are proof. Seahawks shredded the Broncos’ league-leading offense. Then at 50 Von Miller shredded the Panthers. Always back defense.
AC: I think the advantage goes to the Jaguars, and more specifically his cornerbacks. Antonio Brown is going to get his yards regardless of who Jacksonville matches him up with, but I think the rest of the Jacksonville secondary overmatches the remaining Pittsburgh receivers. I think they’ll keep Big Ben and the offense in check, but I’m not sure if Bortles can win the game either.
SB: Defense does indeed win championships, but Bortles can break this Jaguars team in so many ways. I’m seriously interested in this matchup, as two unstoppable forces seem to be heading for a head-on collision.
Case Keenum has looked like a new man all year long for the Vikings, but can he continue that when it matters most?
DH: This is where we’ll find out just what Keenum is all about. If you’ve been living under a rock this regular season, you might have missed that the Saints have rummaged around and found a D hiding somewhere. Adam Thielen vs Marshon Lattimore could be the individual matchup that determines whether Keenum can handle the postseason heat; also watch out for how the Saints cover Kyle Rudolph.
JH: I’m not convinced Case Keenum is the real deal, but I’m not sure he needs to be when Pat Shurmur is at the helm, and Mike Zimmer is coaching the best defense in the NFL right now. Pat Shurmur is one of a handful of offensive coordinators who wins through play design, rather than individual ability, and I see no reason that this will change on Sunday.
TF: Much like Foles, he has an elite team around him. He’s been excellent and relatively mistake-free. Can he do it? Yes. Will he? I like the Saints for the whole thing, so no.
AC: Case Keenum isn’t the part the Vikings should be worried about Sunday. He has a really well designed scheme to play in that helps maximize his strengths. The Saints are vastly improved on defense, but it’s still not elite. Keenum can keep the Vikings in the game, but I’m not sure if his defense can support him enough.
SB: The Saints are eating everything before them right now, and I’d be worried if I were a Vikings fan. Sean Payton and his band of merry men are coming into town like a pack of ravenous wolves, and carrying with them a certain swagger that seems to remove all expectation. Cameron Jordan might have success here on Sunday night.
Which under the radar player do you think will have the most impact this weekend?
DH: The Patriots always seem to pluck an unsung hero out of their backside at this time of year, and consistently win under Belichick by shutting down the opponent’s main offensive strength. Unfortunately, the Titans are built around the run and the threat of Mariota scrambles, and the Pats haven’t been good at linebacker this year. Look to strong safety Patrick Chung to step up in the box and restrict the Titans to short gains on the ground in a game where they will need to get points on almost every drive.
JH: I think Dion Lewis will have a mega impact this weekend, as he can exploit a Titans defense that struggles to defend pass-catching backs. Lewis is not only the best running back on the Patriots roster, but he is one of the best running backs in the league, and certainly one of the most dangerous offensive weapons Tom Brady has had.
TF: Timmy Jernigan. The defensive tackle is a beast up the middle. And he’s afforded a lot of space because he plays besides Fletcher Cox. Matt Ryan is one of those QBs that gets rattled when pressured and hit. If Jernigan gets in his face, the Falcons won’t get this deep throws necessary to win.
AC: Derek Barnett. The Falcons struggled mightily on the offensive line last week against Aaron Donald and the Rams, with Matt Ryan under constant pressure all night. Fletcher Cox and Brandon Graham will get the majority of the attention from Atlanta’s offensive line, which could give the rookie out of Tennessee a chance to get in Matt Ryan’s face early and often.
SB: I really like Tevin Coleman to provide an offensive change-up for Atlanta on Sunday, as they’ll need to use quick pass and screen concepts to neutralise this Eagles defensive front. Get him with the ball in his hands, and let him go to work.
Which four teams do you see advancing to the Championship round?
DH: Vikings, Patriots, Eagles, Steelers.
JH: Vikings, Patriots, Falcons, Steelers.
TF: Saints, Patriots, Falcons, Steelers.
AC: Saints, Patriots, Eagles, Steelers.
SB: Saints, Patriots, Falcons, Steelers.