Wild Card Weekend Roundtable
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From Aaron Rodgers producing yet another Hail Mary last season to Vontaze Burfict’s surreal hit on Antonio Brown in 2016, Wild Card Weekend produced some iconic moments in recent years. The journey to hoisting the Lombardi Trophy starts this weekend, as the Wild Card Round is upon us.
Since the NFL expanded to two wild card teams in the 1990 season, 11 teams playing on the opening weekend of the postseason have made it to the Super Bowl, and seven came out victorious. Of those, three were wild cards in the true sense, having failed to win their division; the Steelers in 2006, Giants in 2008, and Packers in 2011.
Can any of the teams who slipped into the playoffs this year crash the party on Super Bowl Sunday?
Our team of writers Alan Cole, David Howell, Sam Brown, Ste Hoare, and Tristan Fitzpatrick were put to the test with some questions about the four playoff matchups this weekend.
Which team playing this weekend has the best chance of making it to Minneapolis?
AC: I think it has to be the New Orleans Saints. They look a lot like the Falcons did last year with a quarterback catching fire at the right time and two deadly running backs. Their path also could take them to see the struggling Philadelphia Eagles in the divisional round if the Rams beat the Falcons.
DH: Not sure, but it certainly won’t be an AFC team. If I had to guess, the Saints because of their veteran QB and ground game.
SB: Saints – they’ve been there before with this coach and this quarterback, and this defense is looking better than ever before. Factor in a pair of elite running backs, and you’ve got yourself a veritable Super Bowl contender.
SH: I think the Rams; they’re the best team who didn’t get a bye, in my opinion.
TF: New Orleans. They’re dangerous, well coached, and Brees and Payton have been there, done that, and got the T-Shirt. I don’t like Nick Foles and Case Keenum’s odds in a shootout with those guys when the pressure is really on.
Who’s the under the radar player that will make the biggest impact this weekend?
AC: If you asked most people before the season about Keelan Cole, you probably wouldn’t get much of an answer. The undrafted rookie out of Kentucky Wesleyan was used as exactly that early in the season, registering 47 yards on six receptions through the first six weeks of the season, But over the last month of the season, he found lightning in a bottle with 426 receiving yards in the final four games of the season. I think he’ll keep the magic going Sunday.
DH: With the Titans having a D that specialises in run-stuffing and winning up front, don’t be surprised to see slot receiver Albert Wilson making a surprising impact for the Chiefs, who have two obvious receiving threats that the limited Titans secondary might put too much emphasis on stopping.
SB: Calais Campbell – the number two player in the league in sacks might not be as under the radar as some of these other suggestions, but his presence in the heart of the Jacksonville defensive line could spear Buffalo dreams early and often come Sunday.
SH: Keep an eye on Rodger Saffold, the guard from the Rams. His downfield blocking is key for Todd Gurley in the screen game. He’s exceptional at it. If he blocks well, Gurley will dominate that game.
TF: Kelvin Benjamin. The Jags have the best cornerback partnership maybe in NFL history. Benjamin was brought in to be the guy. Do I think it will happen? No. But can it? Sure. If Tyrod can make some plays with Benjamin and throw the Jags off guard… a big, big upset could be on the cards.
Mariota, Goff, Taylor, and Bortles are all playing in their first career playoff games this weekend. Will a lack of postseason experience hurt their teams?
AC: I don’t think it will be what tips the games one way or the other, but it will certainly have an impact. There’s a reason that when the rubber meets the road in January, the experienced quarterbacks usually advance.
DH: Playoff debutant QBs in the last 15 seasons are 11-27… and not only that, it’s a similar picture against the spread. So, in short, that lack of postseason experience matters.
SB: Absolutely not. I’ve seen players with little to no postseason experience light it up when it matters most (Russell Wilson) and other players blow games away in a flash, who should have known better (Peyton Manning). If you can keep your heartbeat slow as the game is on the line, you’ll have success.
SH: I tend not to buy that argument, really. 99 times out of 100, the team with the best scheme and the best coaching wins.
TF: Yes in pretty much every case. Mariota could have a good game, but he’s been shaky most of the season, and now throw in the hostile Arrowhead environment? I don’t like his chances. Goff I expect to win, but Atlanta could wake up from their Super Bowl hangover, and then who knows?
Speaking of young players, which rookie will have the biggest impact on Wild Card Weekend?
AC: I’m going to double down on my Keelan Cole pick with the Jaguars and take Leonard Fournette here. The fourth overall pick in the 2017 Draft passed the thousand yard threshold in his rookie year, and the Bills were fourth last in the NFL in rush defense this season. I think he could grind Buffalo into the ground Sunday.
DH: The obvious place to look for rookie impact is running back – Kamara, Fournette, and Hunt are all in action – but I’m looking out for Tre’Davious White to possibly make a huge impact with a pivotal interception of Blake Bortles.
SB: Alvin Kamara, and it isn’t close. He can make an impact wherever you want to deploy him, he is that good of a runner. Get him on screens, between the tackles, kick returns. Put the ball in this man’s hands.
SH: I think that Kareem Hunt will run all over the Titans, so I’ll go for him.
TF: Tre’Davious White. Bills-Jags isn’t everyone’s favourite matchup, but as of last week White was the highest rated rookie by PFF. That’s higher than Kareem Hunt, Marshon Lattimore and Alvin Kamara. You know who likes to throw picks? Blake Bortles.
If the Jags can’t air it out, they’ll go one dimensional, and the Bills only hope is a close game with little to no surprises. They’re a limited team but they know how to grind. White has been terrific, and I think he could get a defensive play or two that could swing the close game.
The most important thing the Titans have to do to get out of Arrowhead with a win is_____________
AC: I really think position for position and man for man, the Titans aren’t as far off the Chiefs as most people think. Tennessee needs to stay out of the early hole so they can get into some of those matchups with Kansas City. The Chiefs were +15 in the turnover margin this season, while the Titans languished at -4.
Tennessee has to stay out of the early turnovers and sudden changes so they don’t get in a hole. The Chiefs were 3-5 in one possession games this season. If the Titans get a chance to manage the game with Derrick Henry, they’ll have a shot at their first playoff win since 2003.
DH: …stop the Chiefs on first down. Alex Smith has become Captain Checkdown again, so forcing him into long-yardage situations on second and third down spells trouble. However, few teams are as good at consistently getting small positive plays as the Chiefs, so this is easier said than done.
SB: Stay tight on the line of scrimmage. Don’t let Alex Smith settle into his quick passing game, and put him into difficult situations on third down. He may very well beat you with his arm, as he has done to multiple teams this year – but that’s the position you have to put him in if you want that W.
SH: Keep the game low scoring. The Titans offense has really struggled all year, it’s got no rhythm at all. If they need to score upwards of three touchdowns, I don’t give them a chance.
TF: Score more points than the other team….
It’s all on Mariota. The Chiefs are very beatable, they lost six of seven after going 5-0. This is the stage that QBs are made for. He’s got to step up, end of.
The defending NFC Champions snuck into the playoffs. Should the rest of the field be worried about them getting hot and going on a run?
AC: Nobody wants the Falcons to catch lightning in a bottle and make a run from the #6 seed like the 2011 Packers, but I can’t see it. They’ve been inconsistent all season, and don’t match up very well with the Rams. On their best day, they can beat anybody. I really don’t think they are capable of pulling off three or four of those days in as many weeks.
DH: Any team with the explosive playmakers that Atlanta possess have to be considered dangerous. Being the sixth seed is also deceptively good this year, because their path to Championship Sunday runs through the Eagles, and hence through Nick Foles. I could certainly see the Falcons winning that game if they can prevail on Saturday, but that’s no small if.
SB: The other teams in the NFC title race should absolutely be worried about the Falcons doing some damage in the playoffs. People can justifiably bemoan Matt Ryan, but a man just one year removed from an MVP campaign isn’t just a tin can to knock over. Factor in Julio Jones and Devonta Freeman, and you’ve got yourself a stacked -if slightly dysfunctional – offensive machine.
SH: I think they’re a better team than Seattle, who they pipped to that post, so in that sense, yes. Atlanta’s defense has not impressed at all, but their offense still has serious playmakers – and as such, they’re definitely a dangerous side to anyone.
TF: Absolutely. It’s practically the same roster. Personally I believe the magic left with Shanahan, and we’ve seen what he’s doing in San Francisco, so it makes sense. But credit where it’s due. They’re dangerous on both sides of the ball.
What’s the best way for the Bills to generate offense if LeSean McCoy is out or at least limited?
AC: It’s all about Tyrod Taylor’s ability to make plays for himself on the fly. A chunk of the playbook is going to be eliminated without McCoy, so it’s going to come down to what Taylor can do in terms of playmaking. Extending broken plays, finding pockets of space in the middle of the defense to hit his tight ends in particular, and of course designed runs. He’s going to need to put in a Herculean effort for the Bills to win without their best player.
DH: The Bills need to establish Tyrod Taylor as a running threat. There’s no point in them worrying about injury because it’s the team’s biggest game in a generation and they seem terrified to pay him anyway, and there’s nothing that slows down pass-rushers more than having a QB escape into the open space they leave behind on a scramble or designed run.
SB: A thousand read options. I’m serious, make this the most college offense all season. Use Tyrod’s legs, RPOs, just anything to keep the number one Jaguars defense off balance.
SH: Crossing routes over the middle. Jacksonville’s cornerbacks are too good for a downfield attack to work but their linebackers are undersized and reply on speed. The likes of Charles Clay and Nick O’Leary could find some joy against them.
TF: Oh man… there isn’t. Tyrod isn’t a yardage QB, never has been, never will be. I suppose they would have to get him out of the pocket but against the Jags? Good luck.
How big a role will the familiarity between the Panthers and Saints play in their matchup Sunday?
AC: It’s vital. Everything gets amplified when teams square off for the third time in a season. The play calling, schemes, pre-snap motion, and 1v1 battles become that much more magnified when the players have already see it all this season. It comes down to which coaching staff can put in enough wrinkles to keep their counterparts guessing all afternoon.
DH: Familiarity will certainly help both teams prepare for each other’s tendencies, which will certainly have some sort of impact. Do not be surprised to see Sean Payton throw in a radical game plan, or at least a few trick plays, in an attempt to use the Panthers’ familiarity against them. This is the man who called a surprise onside kick in the Super Bowl, after all!
SB: The Saints and Panthers will be familiar with each others’ weaknesses, and this could be a high scoring game indeed. I think we see over 80 points in this game.
SH: It’ll be huge. Both sides will know everything about the other, so it’ll be a game of execution, hence why I think the Saints will win.
TF: Pretty large, but every team does their homework. The difference is, the Panthers and Saints defenses will know what they look like at field level. Every team has had to change things up ever since week 15 when Cam Newton preceded a touchdown by telling Clay Matthews “you’ve been watching film? That’s cool, watch this.”
Which four teams will advance to the divisional round?
AC: Chiefs, Rams, Jaguars, Saints.
DH: Chiefs, Falcons, Jags, Saints. But I’m not confident about any of those!
SB: Chiefs, Rams, Jaguars, Saints.
SH: Chiefs, Rams, Jaguars, Saints.
TF: Kansas City – Tennessee are not good enough, they can be, but they’re not. Kansas would have to self destruct.
Los Angeles – The Rams are efficient. I think they’re better equipped than both the NFC 1&2 seeds. They’ll go far.
Jacksonville – I’m on the Jags train. A good team is a good team. Regardless of history and preconceived notions, which is exactly what I said when I said the Bills would make the playoffs, though few men deserve a playoff Cinderella story more than Kyle Williams does.
New Orleans is going to win the Super Bowl. What’s a round table without a bold statement? As an Eagles fan, it’s the team I’ve been most scared of since week 5. The Panthers are also prone to limping to wins.