2018 NFL Draft: Top 20 Order and Pick Preview
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The 2018 NFL Draft is now less than four months away, and with 20 of the NFL’s 32 teams having played their final snaps of the season, thoughts turn firmly towards the top prospects in the college game as fans and front offices alike cross their fingers for players that can bring their teams January football in years to come.
The order of the top 20 picks is now known – with one minor exception – and as such, we can start thinking about what the teams in question might do with those picks. This will not, however, be a 2018 mock draft. For one, we don’t know which college players are declaring early and which are choosing to stay in school. Secondly, there’s free agency first, and usually teams address their needs with either dollars or draft picks – rarely both. (Though the Bears provided a spectacular exception there last year at quarterback.)
What we can do is wonder what teams might do with those precious picks. Here’s what might be coming from the first 20 picks of the 2018 NFL Draft…
Pick 1: Cleveland Browns
The second team ever to go 0-16, the Browns haven’t won a game against non-Californian opposition since October 2015. By the time the Browns get a chance to break that run, there will have been more Star Wars movies released in that spell than there were in the Browns’ pre-reboot history.
Needless to say, there’s a lot to fix. It begins at quarterback, where 2017 second-rounder DeShone Kizer threw two picks for every touchdown and was generally a disaster. The Panthers were led to the #1 pick seven years ago by second-round rookie Jimmy Clausen, and promptly replaced him with Cam Newton. Expect the Browns to follow suit unless they find a way to get a veteran QB beforehand.
Josh Rosen, Josh Allen, Baker Mayfield, and Lamar Jackson are the headliners of a deep 2018 quarterback class, one that will also feature former presumptive #1 pick Sam Darnold (who was expected by many to stay at USC for a year, but chose to declare for the draft instead).
Pick 2: New York Giants
I predicted before the season that “this team has wildly underestimated crash potential,” but even I wasn’t thinking 3-13 and the worst record in the NFC. The New Jersey Tank Robbers now need to make the most of this golden opportunity to replace Eli Manning with their quarterback of the future.
Again, that might be a veteran, but the Giants will have their pick of the QBs that Cleveland don’t want (which, given Cleveland’s history of QB draft picks, will simply mean removing one red herring). They might even get the QB Cleveland do want, given that Josh Rosen has been dropping not-too-subtle hints about not wanting to become – in the immortal words of NFL Network reporter (and Browns fan) Chris Rose – the next former Browns quarterback.
The last QB to get taken with the top pick by a team he wanted no part of, and later got traded away from? A certain Eli Manning in 2004.
Pick 3: Indianapolis Colts
In theory, the Colts could be in the market for a QB too. After all, nobody seems to have a clue when or whether Andrew Luck will ever play another down in the NFL, thanks to mysterious injury concerns. The last QB to be drafted high in the first round because of career-threatening injury to the incumbent franchise signal-caller? A certain Andrew Luck in 2012.
More likely, however, the Colts look in another direction. If the Colts genuinely don’t know who’ll be running their offense next year, the best thing to do could well be to give him a potentially elite running back in Saquon Barkley to replace the remnants of Frank Gore. It’s what the Cowboys did with Ezekiel Elliott in a very similar situation two years ago, and they got an instant turnaround for their troubles.
They might need a blocking upgrade or three as well to pull that plan off, mind. There’s no offensive lineman worthy of going this high, but maybe that need will be addressed in free agency, or perhaps the Colts will trade down with an eye on someone like Notre Dame’s Mike McGlinchey and Quenton Nelson, who could be immediate upside contributors at tackle and guard respectively.
Pick 4: Cleveland Browns (from Houston Texans)
Say what you will about the Browns’ controversial, newly-fired de facto GM Sashi Brown – he sure left his successor John Dorsey with some draft picks to use.
This one came out of a trade last year that saw them move down the first round in exchange for the Texans’ 2018 first-rounder, a deal that let the Texans draft DeShaun Watson. While he’s panned out so far, his torn ACL and season-ending injuries to star defenders J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus helped send the team into oblivion in the second half of the season. With the Texans having also given up their second-rounder to the Browns in an NBA-style salary dump trade of Brock Osweiler, the team from the Space City have sent the Browns’ draft capital to infinity and beyond. They have six of the top 65 picks!
They need them. Most of the roster is a black hole.
Alabama DB Minkah Fitzpatrick – who has played both corner and safety – has been floated as a possible pick here, as he could be a single-high safety that would allow Jabrill Peppers (taken with the original 2017 Texans pick Cleveland acquired in the Watson trade) to stick in and around the tackle box.
Edge rushers Arden Key and Bradley Chubb should also be in play, as either could form a deadly duo with Myles Garrett. Or, of course, they could trade down for even more picks. Goodness only knows what they’d be looking for after that.
Pick 5: Denver Broncos
With Paxton Lynch looking like a certified bust, the Broncos need to start again in their quest for their franchise quarterback.
It seems difficult to believe any other position could be in play for them, but perhaps they’ll put misplaced faith in Lynch and/or Trevor Siemian and/or Brock Osweiler. Or they could get their solution in free agency. Unfortunately, most of the other Broncos needs aren’t really best filled this high in the draft, as there aren’t really offensive linemen or wide receivers worthy of top-5 selections this year, whilst run-stuffing interior defenders tend not to command premium prices in today’s passing league.
This team might be the early favourites to trade up.
Pick 6: New York Jets
Everyone expected the Jets to be higher than this in the draft four months ago. Unfortunately for them, Josh McCown guided them to multiple Pyrrhic victories before his body broke down (again) and Bryce Petty belatedly led Gang Green down the tank track whilst the team continued to refuse to acknowledge Christian Hackenberg exists.
Needless to say, this is another team that needs a quarterback.
With that said, the Jets have been one of the league’s biggest advocates of taking the “BPA” – best player available – so if there’s a QB panic run ahead of them, do not be surprised if they gladly take advantage, perhaps by taking Barkley.
Alternatively, with two picks in the second round following the Sheldon Richardson trade, the Jets might just trade up for their signal-caller.
Pick 7: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Here’s a team that actually has a franchise quarterback! Now, if only he could be less of a turnover machine…
The Bucs are perhaps most likely to take an edge rusher here, as Noah Spence has recurring shoulder issues and Robert Ayers is both old and out of contract. They’re also in the RB mix with how reliable Doug Martin isn’t, and an offensive lineman would also be a very useful addition – but those two positions may not have any value available at this point in the draft, though Notre Dame’s McGlinchey/Nelson combination might be worth considering, and maybe Barkley falls into their lap.
A possible wild card for this pick; Alabama DT Da’Ron Payne, who’d be the perfect foil for Gerald McCoy.
Pick 8: Chicago Bears
The Bears have put their eggs in the Mitchell Trubisky basket, and what did we learn from his 2017? Mostly, that he has nobody to throw to. Kevin White is a total write-off, Cameron Meredith (brutally hurt in preseason) might have become one, and nobody else has come close to stepping up. The team’s best receiver might actually be Tarik Cohen – a 5’6″ RB/gadget player, who needless to say isn’t someone to build a passing attack around. (Don’t tell Jeff Fisher.)
Alabama WR Calvin Ridley is going to be slotted here in almost every mock draft unless and until the Bears pick up a veteran receiver in free agency, and quite possibly even after that.
The Bears might also consider a tackle – probably McGlinchey – to pair with their strong interior O-line and give Trubisky every chance to succeed in the pocket. And a corner in the first round would also not be a shock, as that’s perhaps their biggest liability on the defensive side of the ball and also a position where there would be value if Fitzpatrick fell this far.
Picks 9/10: San Francisco 49ers/Oakland Raiders
The Bay Area teams will have their draft position finalised by coinflip at the Combine, as not only did they share an identical record, they couldn’t be separated on tiebreakers either. That’s the “minor exception” to the top-20 order being confirmed.
For the Niners, Jimmy Garoppolo will surely be retained at eye-watering expense off the back of a small sample of great performances, while the Raiders have already done that with Derek Carr. So QB isn’t in the frame for either of these picks.
The Raiers have no D – well, they have Khalil Mack and ten bodies, but does that really count? – and could use an upgrade basically anywhere on that side of the ball, while the Niners could use help at wide receiver and guard to help out Jimmy G.
Pick 11: Miami Dolphins
With Ryan Tannehill presumably stepping back in as the QB for Miami, attention turns to their other weaknesses.
The offense in general could use some help. It’s not just because of a QB carousel that the Dolphins were 29th in the league in rushing yards and 28th in scoring offense. Jarvis Landry might be on his way out, and the much-vaunted DeVante Parker breakout never happened, so a wide receiver is in play here.
Defensive back is also a possibility, as Byron Maxwell is a free agent. Tight end and linebacker are other positions that could use help, though the former almost certainly won’t be filled with their first-rounder this year.
Don’t rule out a QB here, with a view to stashing him for the future a lá Mahomes for the Chiefs last year. However, the Dolphins seem to be perpetually afraid to commit to a proper rebuild, so this is unlikely to be their approach even if it arguably should be.
Pick 12: Cincinnati Bengals
Three years ago, the Bengals looked to the future by using their first two picks on Cedric Ogbuehi and Jake Fisher – two offensive linemen who could be stashed for a while to ultimately replace the aging veteran bookends of the Cincy front five.
Nice idea. Unfortunately, both players sucked. (And Fisher’s playing career is up in the air for heart health reasons anyway.) Meanwhile, Andrew Whitworth – maybe the most underrated NFL player of the century so far – moved on last offseason to help transform the Rams into a legitimate contender out of nowhere.
Offensive line help will surely come at some point, but the Bengals could also use an addition at safety – where Derwin James would be a fine pick at this point, and where Reggie Nelson has been badly missed. Don’t rule out a defensive lineman either.
The big question is whether the Bengals finally enter the murky waters of free agency. They’ve made the Packers look free-spending in that department throughout the Marvin Lewis era. The shock Lewis extension, though, suggests the austerity approach will continue.
Pick 13: Washington Redskins
It’s impossible to predict the first-round selection for Washington without knowing what’s happening with Kirk Cousins. Does he actually sign a long-term deal? Does he finally get out? Does the front office manage to pull off a tag-and-trade?
If it’s not a QB they’re looking for, there’s a fair chance it’ll be a defensive player, particularly one who can stop the run after Alfred Morris humiliated them in their last Cowboys clash. Washington (Huskies) nose tackle Vita Vea would tick that box for sure, but a middle linebacker would be preferable with Zach Brown out of contract and linebacker/safety hybrid Su’a Cravens having come close to retirement already in his young, concussion-addled career.
On offense, wide receiver is the big need, as Terrelle Pryor was a free agent bust (who’d have thought the Browns would make the right decision on a player?) and it’s hard to trust both Jamison Crowder and Josh Doctson.
Pick 14: Green Bay Packers
The Packers were exposed in 2017 when Aaron Rodgers went down. With defensive “mastermind” Dom Capers finally gone, and famously free-agency-averse GM Ted Thompson also leaving his post, it’s time to reboot for the final years of Rodgers’ career.
That begins on defense. Just about anywhere on defense, really, but with some theoretical young talent on the back end that could fare better once Capers and his complex schemes are out of the picture, the big need might be edge rusher. Clay Matthews has spent the last few years either playing out of position at middle linebacker or being flat-out ineffective due to being banged up; he likely hasn’t got long left, and it’s not hard to see the team moving on from him given that it would constitute an $11.4m cap saving with no dead money. The Packers’ questionable linebacker unit could use an inside thumper (Georgia’s Roquan Smith would be in the first-round mix here) too.
Offensively, they might be in the mix for a wide receiver despite locking in Davante Adams to a huge new deal, as Jordy Nelson looks like he may not have much left. But expect the first pick to be a defensive player.
Pick 15: Arizona Cardinals
Bruce Arians has retired into the sunset, Carson Palmer has followed, and Larry Fitzgerald most likely will as well.
That leaves this team with all the signs a full-on rebuild, so while quarterback is the obvious urgent need, this could be tank time in the desert if teams get ahead of the Cards for a signal-caller. Do not be shocked in the least if the Cardinals try and acquire some 2019 draft capital via trade, because it seems hard to believe they can compete in 2018.
If another position is to be addressed, it might be corner, as the Patrick Peterson + replacement-level talent combination they’ve been rolling with for a while has practically told opposing quarterbacks where to throw the football before the snap.
Pick 16: Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens had the playoffs in the bag, and they threw it all away on a fourth-and-long. Oof.
Easy to say defensive back is the big need for this team after that, but the real need is on the other side of the ball. There is a particularly urgent need at wide receiver, while some added protection for Joe Flacco would be nice, as the line currently consists of two elite players (Ronnie Stanley and Marshal Yanda) plus three liabilities. Perhaps Mike McGlinchey will fall to them because of concerns about his handling of speed rushes – right tackle on an AFC North team would be a good fit for him.
Pick 17: Los Angeles Chargers
Well, at least the Chargers talent pool looks a bit broader than the team’s fanbase at this point.
Philip Rivers can’t have many years left, though, so this could be time for the Bolts to reload at the QB position. Could #17 get a successor with pick 17? If not, this is another landing spot for an offensive tackle, as Joe Barksdale remains a liability after his one good year and Russell Okung is an injury waiting to happen. A defensive tackle might also help, as the Chargers were an odd-front team until recently and Brandon Mebane isn’t getting any younger, but that might not be a first-round priority.
Then again, nobody picked out wide receiver as that for the Chargers last year and they took one anyway. While Tom Telesco had been a draft-for-need GM in the early rounds, that was a curveball and a half, so this might just be a point for a surprise on draft day.
Pick 18: Seattle Seahawks
Offensive line is the obvious place to go here. Maybe too obvious, given how much of an escape artist Russell Wilson is.
The Seahawks, out of seemingly nowhere, now have liabilities on the defensive side of the ball. Injuries turned the Legion of Boom into the Legion of Backups, and those backups were more bust than boom. Kam Chancellor may have played his last snap – Pete Carroll has hinted as much, as he did with edge rusher Cliff Avril. Earl Thomas contemplated retirement after an injury of his own last year. Richard Sherman is coming off a torn Achilles.
Most casual NFL fans would be stunned to see a defensive back going to Seattle. They would be wrong. It has a very real chance of happening.
Pick 19: Dallas Cowboys
Like the Seahawks, the Cowboys have a position group that’s widely seen as the best in the business but which now very much isn’t. That would be the offensive line, and Dak Prescott looked like the young mid-round pick he actually was in 2017 when his blocking was weakened. Do not be shocked to see the Cowboys once again go for a blocker in the first round.
A more obvious need would be wide receiver, though. Dez Bryant is firmly on the regression trail, to the point that teams opted to double-team tiny Cole Beasley instead. A new big outside receiver is clearly needed, and with the failure of first-round WRs the last couple of years, there could be real value at the position here. Maybe even Calvin Ridley falls this far?
Tight end is also in play if the right player is available, as Jason Witten is firmly on the downside of his awesome career – but there isn’t a clear first-rounder at that position this year like there was last.
Pick 20: Detroit Lions
Jim Caldwell is gone, in one of the more intriguing Black Monday moves this year – he was only one year into a four-year contract extension. That suggests there could be upheaval in the Motor City, but where will it begin?
Possibly at running back, where Ameer Abdullah continues to underwhelm, but most likely this pick will be used for defensive assistance. After all, only six teams scored more points in 2017, but only eleven allowed more. This team can’t rely on shootouts to win, much as Matthew Stafford fantasy owners appreciate that they currently do.
Corner could be a good spot to fill here, allowing Quandre Diggs to move back to safety; like the Cardinals, the Lions have one stud (Darius Slay) and not enough else at that position. If Ziggy Ansah isn’t given a new deal, though, edge rusher becomes the biggest need. The team could also double down on first-round linebackers after taking Jarrad Davis last year; if so, look for more of a coverage player, as Davis has done most of his best work against the run.