RAF Writers’ Roundtable: Will they return to the playoffs? AFC Edition
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Every year, 12 NFL teams punch their ticket to the playoffs. Some of them, we expected to be there. Others are a surprise and raise eyebrows of fans and analysts alike as they foray into that which they do not belong.
We’ll run-down all 12 franchises that secured a playoff berth in the 2016 season, and our writers give their opinions on whether they think they’ll return to the promised land in 2017.
Was your team’s success last season a flash in the pan? Or have your warriors put a team on the gridiron we view as being sustainable?
Here are the teams trying to get back in the AFC bracket:
Miami Dolphins (10-6) - AFC Wildcard
Tristan Fitzpatrick: No, They’re in a tough division as it is. Adam Gase deserves credit for getting an average team to the playoffs through wild-card but they’re not good enough. A healthy Ravens and Colts teams are more likely for that AFC wildcard, heck I’d even the Bills.
Alex Murray: No, Miami may struggle to get a wildcard place this year. They would have to do even better than they did last season to even consider it.
Alan Cole: No. The ‘Phins were pretty fortunate to get there last year with some close wins and lucky breaks. An already tight wild card race combined with the misfortune of having to face the entire NFC South and AFC West divisions will bump Miami out of the playoffs.
Joe Hulbert: No. The Miami Dolphins were the surprise package of the NFL last year, and while I think they’ll be good again, I think they will just miss the playoffs. The Dolphins will have to contend with a stronger Buffalo Bills team this year, and there are simply better teams in the AFC wild-card race.
David Howell: No. Jay Ajayi is going to crumble under the workload – remember, he fell in the draft because of durability concerns around his knee – and there’s always the potential for that locker room to fall to bits too, with Ndamukong Suh in it.
Ste Hoare: Yes, I think the Dolphins will earn a wildcard place. I’m a huge believer in Adam Gase and I think with an improved offensive line, Jay Ajayi will be the catalyst to success.
Sam Brown: No. Although, I acknowledge that this Dolphins team is extremely complete, and without any glaring weakness. Unfortunately, I doubt whether or not Ryan Tannehill has the ability to propel them into January – prove me wrong, Ryan!
Oakland Raiders (12-4) - AFC Wildcard
TF: No. I hate to say it after such a terrific year last year.. I’m just not convinced. Derek Carr is still going to be terrific, but can the rest of the team replicate career years? I don’t think so. The Broncos are still going to be dangerous and Andy Reid always coaches a competitive team in KC, honestly even Rivers in LA could surprise.
AM: Yes. The Raiders addition of Marshawn Lynch shows their intent. They look the business, and are my tip to win the AFC West.
AC: Yes. My pick to dethrone the Chiefs as AFC West champions, Oakland has their QB and head coach locked in long term with new deals. There is no reason to think a team who went 12-4 last year won’t get back to the postseason.
JH: No. Many want the Raiders to go out in style before they move to Las Vegas, but I have the Raiders going 9-7 this year. The Chargers were decimated by injuries last year so they should improve, and Denver brought back Mike McCoy, which means Derek Carr’s divisional struggles will probably continue. If John Pagano can sort the defence out, I’ll revise this prediction, but for now I have them just missing out at the expense of Kansas City.
DH: Yes. Pains me to say it as a British Chargers fan who keeps seeing people in their gear even though they probably think Derek Carr is a character in a Pixar movie, but they’re good. And the Chiefs and Broncos are both teams in transition.
SH: Yes. I think they will win the division, albeit it will be a close call. I think the addition of Marshawn Lynch will turn into a success and whilst I still have questions about the defence, I think the offence is loaded and that will take them to a division crown.
SB: Yes. Marshawn Lynch’s arrival gives the team the spice it needs to shake up that AFC West good and proper. Khalil Mack ought to solidify his status as this generation’s pass rusher too, and I don’t think anyone in this stacked division will catch them.
New England Patriots (14-2) - First Place in AFC East
TF: Yes. Does a Duck with a boner drag weeds? Is a Frog’s asshole watertight? Is Tom Brady really good at football? You get the idea. The last time the Patriots didn’t make the playoffs was in 2008, and they were the first team with a 11 wins to not make it.
AM: Yes. They’re the New England Patriots. Of Course they’re going to the playoffs.
AC: Yes. Water is wet, fire is hot, and the Patriots win the AFC East. Just the facts of life.
JH: Yes. The New England Patriots will comfortably return to the playoffs as they added extra weapons in the form of Brandin Cooks and Mike Gillislee, and their defence will always be better than the sum of its parts under Matt Patricia.
DH: Yes. They don’t even need Tom Brady to win with everyone else they have. And a good thing too, because (hostage to fortune time) I genuinely think this might be the year he falls off a cliff…
SH: Yes. No more needs to be said, right?
SB: Yes. I don’t think there’s anything more to add here.
Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5) - First Place in AFC North
TF: Yes. The NFL’s most successful franchise continues to roll on. They’re a lot like the Seahawks in that they’re not quite what they used to be but Brown, Bell and Big Ben are a trio that is good enough for anyone.
AM: Yes. The Steelers should yet again be in the mixer, and I would be shocked if they missed out on a playoff berth.
AC: Yes. This team has too much offensive firepower to miss the playoffs. Even with a suspect defense, Big Ben, Bell, and AB will carry the Steel Curtain back to January.
JH: Yes. The Pittsburgh Steelers will return to the post-season on the back of Leveon Bell, who could genuinely have an MVP level year if he is healthy. The defence is massively overrated, but as long as it can be average (which is what it is), they should be fine in their division.
DH: Yes. They won that division with no D last year, they can win that division with no D this year. It’s not like the other teams in it have improved enough.
SH: Yes. I think the Steelers will win the AFC North and I actually think they’re the second best team in the conference. They have a star quarterback, a star running back, star wide receiver and a great offensive line too. I think they’re starting to build a good defence too and I expect them to be in the playoffs once again.
SB: Yes. It’s hard to see how a team with Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown misses the playoffs. The offensive line is not to be sniffed at too, and the state of the defense hence becomes an afterthought when considering their playoff status.
Houston Texans (9-7) - First Place in AFC South
TF: Yes. A bold prediction, the Texans will be this year’s Cowboys. They have a young QB who will have to punch above his weight, they have the workhorse running back, and you can’t forget that defence. I’ve given up predicting the Colts will be the team they’re supposed to be so jump on this bandwagon.
AM: No. Deshaun Watson is now at the helm in Houston. The times are changing in the AFC South, The Titans look the business, and really should win the division this year. The Texans will struggle to make it to the playoffs.
AC: No. The quarterback play is way too much of an unknown right now for me to have the Texans back in the playoffs. Deshaun Watson might be good, but until he actually takes snaps, his game is suspect. Marcus Mariota and the Titans also look like they are ready to take charge of the AFC South.
JH: No. For many years, the Houston Texans have had the luxury of playing in an easy division, and it is for this reason that they will miss the post-season. Deshaun Watson slid in the draft which is bad for two reasons. One, is that Heisman Trophy winners almost always get overdrafted, and the second reason is that every team passed on him in a QB needy NFL. The season could get ugly for the Texans faithful.
DH: No. Certainly not as division winners; I think the Titans might now be the second-best team in the AFC. If JJ Watt is healthy and Deshaun Watson can step up fast, they should get a wild card, but that’s one big if and one massive one.
SH: No. As good as the defence is, and I think it is great. I just can’t see either Tom Savage or Deshaun Watson leading a limited offence to the playoffs. I’m tipping the Colts to win the AFC South.
SB: No. The defense has lost key members of its secondary in A.J. Bouye and Quintin Demps, and Deshaun Watson could struggle to assimilate to an NFL offense.
Kansas City Chiefs (12-4) - First Place in AFC West
TF: No. I think it will be a down year for the Chiefs. Raiders and Broncos are better and the Chargers if healthy will probably all top the division over KC. I just like other teams in the AFC for wildcard. The Chiefs might be getting at top five pick next year.
AM: No. The Chargers look good, the Broncos are still a solid outfit and the Oakland Raiders continue to get better. It’s hard to see the Chiefs winning the AFC West, or even getting a wildcard.
AC: No. The AFC West is way too deep for a team led by Alex Smith to win it again. Everybody else in this already strong division improved this offseason, and I think KC got worse with a subpar draft.
JH: Yes. I keep trying to convince myself that the Chiefs will drop out of the post-season, but they have a great defence, and Andy Reid is someone who will always get the most out of his offence. I do not think they will win their division this year, but I have them finishing 10-6 and facing the Titans in the wild-card game.
DH: No. This one is marginal, as I somewhat fancy them to get a wild card, but they had some luck to get the record they did last year. (Remember that Cairo Santos ricochet FG to win in Denver?) And they now have a Tavon Austin clone as their WR1, which is dubious at best.
SH: No, but that’s not to say I don’t like the Chiefs, I really do. However, getting a wildcard from such a tough division seems unlikely as I think all four teams will take games off each other.
SB: No. I am a big fan of the Kansas City Chiefs, and I believe too much has been evaluated into the decisions to fire General Manager John Dorsey and cut wide receiver Jeremy Maclin. However, I can’t look past the stacked AFC West. The Broncos, Raiders, and Chargers could feasibly all make the playoffs, and the Chiefs would be on the outside looking in.