2016 Fantasy Preview: Top 10 WRs
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The age of taking running backs early and often in fantasy drafts is over. In many drafts this year, four of the top five picks are being used on wide receivers, thanks to the question marks over even the top backs in this passing-driven league – and this fantasy preview will cover all of those pass-catchers, along with six of the best after that.
While the weekly production of receivers tends to be more variable from week to week – as they touch the ball less often than a lead running back and are more likely to gain their yards in bunches – their lower injury risk and the ongoing shift towards an aerial attack in the NFL mean that a good receiver has a higher season-long floor than even the most dependable ball-carriers. With that greater reliability, an early-round pick at the position carries far less risk, but you still need to consider individual players carefully. That’s where this fantasy preview comes in.
The top ten wide receivers by Average Draft Position on Fantasy Football Calculator mock drafts as of 28 August each have reasons to take them and reasons to leave them when you’re on the clock. This preview will mention both sides, and then answer the all-important question: should you draft them?
You can also read a similar preview of the top ten RBs here.
Antonio Brown
Team: Pittsburgh Steelers
Bye Week: 8
Average Draft Position (ADP): Round 1, Pick 1.
Reasons to take him: Brown was a fantasy monster last year. And the year before. And the year before that.
His lowest season total in those three years was 110 catches for 1,499 yards and eight touchdowns. He increased all three of those figures in 2014, and then did so again last year – and he’d have had the first 2,000-yard receiving season in NFL history if he’d not had a few stinkers in the absence of Ben Roethlisberger, with whom he has a seemingly telepathic connection on the field. Roethlisberger might even improve this season, as he’s spent the offseason focusing on cardiovascular endurance and weight loss in the hope of improving his durability.
Reasons to leave him: Therein lies the first and last case against him. Not a ridiculous athletic machine like some of the other receivers around him – which is why he fell to the sixth round in the 2010 draft – he relies on his remarkable route-running ability, and that’s a much less valuable skill with a less familiar quarterback. The Steelers’ top backup is the inept Landry Jones, and Big Ben – who turns 35 next spring – missed four games to multiple injuries last season.
Should you draft him?: Yes. Don’t overthink this; he is the most valuable player in fantasy right now, and certainly the one with the highest floor on both a season-long and weekly basis. This goes double in PPR leagues, where he might not put up a single-digit score all season. If you’re picking at 1 this year, take your chances later, and go with the sure thing to start.
Julio Jones
Team: Atlanta Falcons
Bye Week: 11
ADP: Round 1, Pick 3.
Reasons to take him: Volume. Volume. Volume. This guy has more volume than a rock festival underneath an airport flight path.
Last season, he had 136 receptions – tying Brown’s 2015 for the second-most of all time – for 1,871 yards, which was also the second-most of all time behind Calvin Johnson’s 1,964-yard 2012. He had fifteen games with at least 88 receiving yards! His touchdown count was underwhelming – just eight – but that number can be unpredictable from season to season, and his size makes him a theoretical dream target on jump balls in the painted area.
Reasons to leave him: However, that lower touchdown count seems to be no fluke with Jones, as it was actually up on 2015, where he caught 104 passes for 1,593 yards but took only six of them to the house. The Falcons’ O-line looks better in run-blocking than pass protection, so this team is likely to go run-heavy in the red zone, despite Jones’ natural gifts. That’s especially the case because Matt Ryan is a turnover machine – he’s thrown 14 or more picks every year since 2012 – and had a worryingly bad preseason.
The Falcons may also try and feed overpaid new acquisition Mohamed Sanu, who has the size to be a red zone weapon at 6’2″. Jones fantasy owners will have to hope Sanu mostly leads to more balanced coverage from opposing defensive units.
Should you draft him?: Yes, but he is clearly below Brown. I’d still be happy to take him with a top-three pick and ahead of all running backs, especially in PPR.
Odell Beckham Jr.
Team: New York Giants
Bye Week: 8
ADP: Round 1, Pick 3.
Reasons to take him: Traditionally, wide receivers take a big step up in the third year of their career. Odell Beckham Jr. was drafted in 2014. In his first two seasons, he racked up 2,755 receiving yards – topping the record set by Randy Moss – and 25 touchdowns, and he did all that despite missing the first four games of his rookie year to a hamstring injury and another last year to suspension!
A step up from that level of production would give him one of the greatest fantasy seasons ever, maybe even the greatest. With offensive speed merchant Ben McAdoo now taking the head-coaching role from Tom Coughlin, that might just happen.
Reasons to leave him: That suspension came after an infamous running battle with Josh Norman, who happened to make a stunning offseason move to Washington that means he’ll face Beckham twice a year. However, even that isn’t a huge problem; one of those games this season happens to be in Week 17 (if your league plays Week 17, shout at your GM until that changes), and it seems likely that the former Panthers corner – who could be distracted by his new in-season media work for FOX – will not be as effective this year.
It’s also hard to imagine Beckham actually taking a third-year leap from these unprecedented levels. Indeed, he took a step down in per-game production last year, and his remarkable touchdown rate might not be sustainable, especially for a receiver who doesn’t even clear the six-foot mark.
Should you draft him?: Yes. I’d tentatively have him ahead of Jones in standard leagues, my only concern being that his touchdown rate might regress. Eli Manning looks like a better fantasy and real-world quarterback than Matt Ryan at this point, but you really can’t go that wrong with either Jones or Beckham, and I’d take either over any RB if I have a top-three selection.
A.J. Green
Team: Cincinnati Bengals
Bye Week: 9
ADP: Round 1, Pick 8.
Reasons to take him: Green is a big-play machine, averaging more than 15 yards per reception in each of the last two seasons. He’s not had a season in his career with fewer than 1,000 receiving yards, and has had double-digit touchdown counts in all three 16-game seasons he has played.
Further helping his cause from a volume perspective is how the Bengals’ secondary targets are either injured (Tyler Eifert) or departed Paul Brown Stadium to rob other teams in a seller’s market in free agency (Sanu, Marvin Jones). With the next men up in the passing game being a second-round rookie (Tyler Boyd) and someone deemed disposable by the WR-needy Patriots (Brandon LaFell), Green is going to get a serious workload to start the season…
Reasons to leave him: …or is he? He is due to become a father next month; his wife Miranda has a due date of 30 September, the day after the Bengals play a Thursday night game against the Miami Dolphins, and Richard Skinner of Cincinnati’s CBS local station WKRC reported that the receiver would miss a game to be at the birth. That’s great to hear, but it means fantasy owners can’t count on him for what would be a very tasty Week 4 clash. A slightly premature birth could see him miss the Week 3 contest with the Denver Broncos, but that’d be a less problematic game to miss, as nobody’s on bye and the Broncos roster is set up to play low-scoring football games.
Green has also never had the volume to be a truly elite fantasy option – he’s never had a 100-catch season in his career so far – and that lack of volume has meant more week-to-week variation than the likes of Brown or Jones. That might change this year with how much receiver support there isn’t, but the Bengals might also try and win games on the ground from the off with Jeremy Hill and Gio Bernard; time of possession could be important with key defender Vontaze Burfict suspended.
Should you draft him?: Probably not at his current asking price. The prospect of an unscheduled off week is the sort of thing that separates out players who are tightly packed together, and there looks to be just such a cluster around Green in the back end of the first round.
He still shouldn’t be allowed to slip out of the top 15, but if you’re drafting him, act as though he’s got a Week 4 bye as well. Given how his actual bye week is a crowded one, that’s a legitimate challenge, and with his ADP not (yet?) reacting to the prospect of him missing a game, it’s one I’ll likely duck out of in all leagues this year.
DeAndre Hopkins
Team: Houston Texans
Bye Week: 9
ADP: Round 1, Pick 9.
Reasons to take him: Last season, Hopkins set an NFL record that may never be beaten; he had 100-yard receiving games with four different quarterbacks in the same season! Brian Hoyer, Ryan Mallett, T.J. Yates, and Brandon Weeden formed that not-so-fantastic four, and as if that wasn’t enough reason to marvel at the superheroic Hopkins, he also caught a touchdown from each of them, finishing the year with 11 in all.
He gets another new quarterback in Brock Osweiler this year, and while he almost certainly got overpaid, he can’t possibly be a downgrade on that lot. The very fact that they spent a zillion bucks (OK, $72m with $37m guaranteed) on a quarterback suggests they’re going to air it out, too.
Reasons to leave him: As hard as it is to believe, the Texans were actually top-10 in passing attempts in 2015, which was a huge part of how Hopkins made it to 111 receptions. That they still ranked fifth in rushing attempts obviously suggests a relatively fast-paced approach (in fact, not even Chip Kelly’s Philadelphia Eagles ran as many offensive plays per game as the Texans last year!), which is good news on the fantasy front, but I’d still bet against a repeat of that passing volume. Much will depend on the health of the Watt-Clowney defensive duo, as the more beat-up they are, the more negative (and hence passing-friendly) the game scripts are likely to be.
There’s also a lack of established chemistry with Osweiler, but Hopkins has obviously rendered that irrelevant in the past, so it’s no big deal.
Should you draft him?: Yes. I take one look at his 2015 situation and go “if you can make it there, you can make it anywhere.” I wouldn’t take him over the receiver playing in New York, New York (…actually East Rutherford, New Jersey, but that doesn’t scan), but he’s a first-round lock and you can make a case for taking him in the top five.
Dez Bryant
Team: Dallas Cowboys
Bye Week: 7
ADP: Round 2, Pick 2.
Reasons to take him: Prior to his injury-affected 2015, Bryant racked up 41 touchdowns in the prior three years. With the damage to his foot – ironically given his team, it was a so-called Jones fracture – now seemingly out of the picture, he can return to dominance, as he’s still only 28 and hence clearly in his prime.
The Cowboys will also probably have to throw early and often, as their defensive line depth chart to start the season might be the weakest in NFL history. I legitimately feel sorry for those guys in practice against that O-line – who will also help Dez’s fantasy outlook, by giving him more opportunities to go deep down the field.
Reasons to leave him: The other reason Dez had a terrible 2015 when he was on the field was the absence of Tony Romo to injury. News flash: he’s got to do it again, as Romo has another back injury and will miss at least the first month. Dak Prescott may even run away with the starting job, given his preseason form and Romo’s age – it wouldn’t be the first time such a transition has occurred – and Bryant has missed some potentially priceless on-field reps with the Mississippi State rookie, thanks to a concussion that kept him out of the preseason dress rehearsal.
Should you draft him?: Possibly. I’m not taking him in any leagues myself – Bryant was arrested on a domestic violence charge in 2012, and I make a point of avoiding players with those kind of question marks over them.
If you think that Ezekiel Elliott will be a bust, that Dak Prescott will be made to be a gunslinger out of the gate, and that he’ll be competent at it, you’ve just described a narrative that makes Dez a top-five fantasy receiver and maybe more. And I certainly think all of those things happening is more likely than none of those things happening. Dez is a riskier pick than I’d like from an early-round WR, but his path to monster production is as wide-open as anyone’s, so he’s a perfectly valid pick at the top of the second. As long as you’re more comfortable with cheering him than I am.
Allen Robinson
Team: Jacksonville Jaguars
Bye Week: 5
ADP: Round 2, Pick 3.
Reasons to take him: Robinson is another of the much-vaunted WR class of 2014, meaning he’s ready for his third-year leap. That is especially promising for him because of how young he was when he entered the league – he’s literally just turned 23 (on 24 August) – meaning that his 2015 season was almost certainly not his ceiling, something backed up by reports from training camp.
That’s saying something when he jointly led the NFL in touchdowns in that season with 14, not to mention racking up 1,400 yards. If that’s what he’s doing before he “makes the leap,” he could have one of the best statistical seasons in NFL history after it. It’s also worth noting that his quarterback, Blake Bortles, is also entering his third season and has plenty of room for growth himself.
Reasons to leave him: That 2015 stat line was sponsored by a Jacksonville waste management company, because it was absolutely filled with garbage-time production as the Jaguars chased lost causes week after week. Nothing wrong with that, but there’s no guarantee that the team’s “stop unit” will continue to be a “go unit” in 2016, as they’re adding an elite young player on all three defensive levels: on the line with edge rusher Dante Fowler Jr., the 2015 third overall pick who tore his ACL in his first practice session as a pro; at linebacker with Myles Jack, who had similarly lofty draft projections for 2016 but fell into the second round after a meniscus tear in college and the bombshell that he may have microfracture surgery in his future; and in the secondary with Jalen Ramsey, who played both corner and safety at Florida State and is ticketed for the latter role by a Jaguars team who took him fifth in this year’s draft. Throw in the free agent acquisitions of Malik Jackson and Prince Amukamura, plus the addition of running back Chris Ivory, and there’s almost no chance the Jaguars repeat their 2015 offensive imbalance (they ranked 12th in passing attempts and 31st in rushing attempts last year) that buoyed Robinson’s fantasy production.
Robinson was also rather inefficient in 2015, believe it or not, as he got targeted 142 times but only caught 80 (56.3%) of those passes. And his bye week is deceptively awkward, as it’s shared with the fantasy goldmine that is the New Orleans Saints, as well as mid-round options Doug Baldwin and Jeremy Maclin; that might be another reason to look in another direction with your second-round pick.
Should you draft him?: Possibly. Much comes down to how much do you believe in the new-look Jacksonville D, and in my case the answer is “not very,” as most of the additions have had chequered injury histories, and the exception (Jackson) could be another player who took the money and slacked off. There is definitely room for less progress than anticipated on that side of the ball, but I’m more worried about how Chris Ivory could snatch red-zone work – the Jaguars clearly paid him to do so, as they constantly aired it out inside the 20 last year due to not trusting T.J. Yeldon in such situations. However, he’s vulnerable to injury and/or sharp regression due to his bruising style, so someone with an “all or nothing” draft attitude could double-dip with Robinson and Yeldon and be richly rewarded if Ivory gets hurt or busts.
There are a lot of moving parts involved in projecting Robinson’s production, but he could easily be one of the most valuable fantasy players at any position if they move the right way. His ADP is probably about right.
Brandon Marshall
Team: New York Jets
Bye Week: 11
ADP: Round 2, Pick 7.
Reasons to take him: I predicted he’d have a major down year in 2015, as he went to a team with a bad quarterback situation and happened to be doing in-season media work for the TV show “Inside the NFL” as well. Mea culpa – he put together a 14-touchdown, 1,502-yard year that represented his most productive fantasy season ever. (And he’s had a few of those; he’d already had seven 1,000-yard seasons in his career, catching 100 passes in five of those and scoring double-digit touchdowns in three.) You want a track record? You’ve got it!
Also, he’s come into this season still committed, coming in a few pounds lighter than in previous years after the Jets suggested that would help his speed. Whether that’s true or not, it’s further evidence that my fears about his dedication to the game last year were badly misplaced.
Reasons to leave him: Hands up if you think Ryan Fitzpatrick, after spending the entire summer holding out in a contractual dispute and having been a journeyman signal-caller for essentially his entire career, will throw for 3,900 yards and over 30 touchdowns again in 2016.
Nope. Didn’t think so.
Marshall is also 32, so could regress himself, though I and others cried wolf about that one after his injury-stricken 2014. He missed the preseason dress rehearsal with a “sore hip” and has a history of injuries to that area of his body, so there’s evidence to support concern this time around.
Should you draft him?: No. He’s getting picked on past production, and Fitzpatrick looked horribly and predictably unprepared in preseason. With a string of younger receivers on the upside of their career available later in the draft than Marshall, I can’t understand how anyone would burn a top-20 pick on an old guy catching passes from a bottom-barrel QB. I’m not even sure I’d take him in the fourth round, let alone the second.
Jordy Nelson
Team: Green Bay Packers
Bye Week: 4
ADP: Round 2, Pick 9.
Reasons to take him: He’s the top target in probably the top passing attack in the league. In his three full seasons as a full-time receiver, Nelson has had three big-time stat lines: 1,263 yards and 15 touchdowns in 2011; 1,314 yards and eight touchdowns in 2013; and 1,519 yards and 13 touchdowns in a colossal 2014. If he’s healthy, he’s a WR1.
Reasons to leave him: He’s not healthy.
Yes, he’s finished the arduous rehabilitation process after his preseason ACL tear that cost him the 2015 season and sparked an attack on the preseason as a whole from Aaron Rodgers. However, he’s spent more time off recently with tendonitis in his other knee; that’s the sort of injury that can come from overuse of the healthy leg during rehab, and the Packers acknowledged as much when reporting the injury. Is there going to be that same imbalance from Nelson when the real action begins? You couldn’t rule it out.
Should you draft him?: No. I am not a doctor, but what I do understand about that injury scares me, especially for a receiver who relies on his physical traits and happens to be in his thirties. The upside is undeniable, but there’s too many other safer options at this position for me to be tempted by someone with obvious bust potential like this. If I wanted to gamble that much in the second round, I’d probably do so on a running back.
Mike Evans
Team: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Bye Week: 6
ADP: Round 3, Pick 1.
Reasons to take him: Another Class of 2014 receiver, Evans has clear room for growth after an underwhelming sophomore season that still saw him rack up over 1,200 yards. He had one of the worst drop rates in the NFL last year, which he has attributed in offseason interviews to a lack of focus; with crab-snatching signal-caller Jameis Winston also committing to the mental side of his game and a year of scheme continuity (offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter taking the head-coaching reins from Lovie Smith), that ought to change.
Some of those drops were why he somehow wound up with just three touchdowns, despite his imposing 6’5″ frame. With more focus, he should get most of the way back to his rookie-year total of 12, and maybe even top it.
Reasons to leave him: Players can say all they like that they worked on their mentality after a bad year, but we need to actually see some evidence before we believe them. A 5-115-1 receiving line in the preseason dress rehearsal would appear to count as evidence, but that’s against the Cleveland Browns, so does it really count? Then again, he does play in the same division as the Saints…
Should you draft him?: Yes. Every visible sign right now points to WR1 production from the former Aggie, who should benefit immensely from offensive continuity and the growth of his young quarterback. How he is going later than Brandon Marshall in drafts is testament to how backward-looking too many drafters are. He can be considered as early as the top of the second round.