College Corner: Houston Cougars
The concept of a team outside of the power five conferences being legit contenders for anything major in college football is fairly now. Under the old system, one of the five BCS Bowl Games as they were called had to involve one non power-five team. That rule still exists with the New Years Six bowl games. The highest ranked team outside of the ACC, Big-10, Big-12, Pac-12, and SEC go to one of those six major bowl games. But the fact that someone outside of those major conferences could challenge for a place in the College Football Playoff is unheard of. Enter the Houston Cougars.
2015 Season: The Cougars, members of the American Athletic Conference, finished 11-1 last season. Their only loss was a puzzling one in Hartford against Connecticut 20-17. Outside of that they ran the table with wins over three ranked opponents, as well as a 34-0 domination of SEC team Vanderbilt. They beat Temple 24-13 in the conference championship game to get to one of the New Years Six bowl games. They were sent to Atlanta to play Florida State in the Chick-Fil-A Bowl.
The powerful Seminoles were just supposed to turn up and win, but the Cougars snuck up on them and blistered the ACC school with a 38-24 win. That positive end to last season with a win over a major program gives people reason to believe the Cougars might go a step farther this year and do the impossible.
Key Loses/Recruiting: Three Houston players were selected in the NFL Draft, but the only one of those to go before the end of the 6th round was cornerback William Jackson III, who was the first round selection of the Bengals. The secondary is losing three starters though, and that is a major concern for this year. Safety Adrian McDonald and corner Lee Hightower added into the previously mentioned William Jackson III do create gaps that need to be filled. That’s the biggest issue this year.
For recruiting it’s about one name. Ed Oliver. He is the first ever five star recruit since ESPN has been tracking recruits to attend a school outside of the power five conferences. It was a shock of seismic proportions when the defensive end who had his choice of any school in the country chose Houston, but that shows how far the program has come. The Cougars also got two more players off the ESPN top 300 recruits list, but they were both in the 200-300 range while Oliver was #4 overall.
2016 Outlook: I’ve already talked about their secondary concerns and amazing pass rushing haul in recruiting, so let’s go to the offense. Quarterback Greg Ward Jr. is back and so is offensive minded head coach Tom Herman, so those are two key building blocks in place right there. Wide receiver Chance Allen is also going to be a Cougar next season. Houston scored at least 33 points in all but two of their 14 games last season, so with a quarterback and running back coming back that should stay pretty consistent.
On defense, the big question is how much of an immediate impact Ed Oliver will have. He is projected to dominate for the years to come at Houston, but will he as a freshman? They are going to rely very heavily on their pass rush to help eliminate the threats of deep balls against their frail secondary.
The tricky thing for Houston is that if they have any chance of making the playoff, they have to go 12-0 and win their conference. If they played in a major conference they might get a little margin for error. Six out of the eight teams to be in the playoff since its inception have had a loss. The difference is all of them played in a power five conference. With Houston being in the American Athletic Conference, there is absolutely zero margin for error. That would be fine if they weren’t playing many peoples’ favorites to win the National Championship Oklahoma in week one.
Houston will be a double-digit point favorite in every game except the opener against Oklahoma. Barring something ridiculous, they will win all of those games. Their season comes down to week one. Houston vs. Oklahoma at NRG Stadium will decide the season. If they are up for it, it could be a very special year for the Cougars.
2016 Schedule:
9/3 Oklahoma
9/10 Lamar
9/15 @ Cincinnati
9/24 @ Texas State
9/29 UConn
10/8 @ Navy
10/15 Tulsa
10/22 @ SMU
10/29 UCF
11/12 Tulane
11/17 Louisville
11/25 @ Memphis
Prediction: 11-1 (8-0 in American Athletic Play)